The Oscars: Rules, Predictions, and Commentary

As most people every year watch the Academy Awards telecast and try to see if their favorites win, I thought I might try to explain a bit about how things work and give my predictions along the way.

Voting: The first thing people need to know is how the voting works (a significant majority of people have no clue as to how this is done). The members of the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences, a roster of about 6,000, collectively choose the nominees for Best Picture and get to vote for the winner. In all other categories, the nominees are chosen by members who are specialists in their respective categories and the winner is chosen by all members of the Academy.

This accounts for one major phenomenon: the sweep of a movie. In many cases a movie can take home a handful of awards, some of which it does not deserve, by riding a wave of momentum. An example of this can be found at last year’s Academy Awards telecast, where the English Patient, winner of nine awards, took home awards for best costume and best set design. Now, I don’t know about you, but I saw Hamlet that year and the detail and originality that went into that film in those categories was far greater. Why did it lose? Simply because ALL of the academy members (including many non-specialists in those areas) were able to vote.

Snubs: The most interesting topic and conversation starter when the awards are announced revolves around who got snubbed. This year’s popular snubs were Donnie Brasco and The Ice Storm, both early releases. Fargo, and Silence of the Lambs, are amongst the few notable movies to have survived the "early release date syndrome;" both endured only due to the help and pushing of the studios and critics. This brings us to the next topic:

The voting members: Most people should remember that these voters are not gods. They see the same movies you do, which means for the most part, they only see the more commercially successful ones. Due to this fact, studios push for people to remember their films; sometimes making private video pressings given to academy voters specifically for the purpose of hinting that their film is worthy of a look.

First time nominees and "old-timers": Just because an actor or actress who is an old favorite was nominated for the first time does not mean that he or she will win. Sure, many years are marked by familiar comebacks, such as that of Clint Eastwood with Unforgiven in 1992, and this year’s resurrection of Burt Reynolds and Peter Fonda. Yet viewers should keep in mind that anything can happen. An example of this was seen last year, when Juliette Binoche won for her performance in The English Patient, even though Lauren Bacall, an old favorite who was nominated for the first time and had won the Golden Globe, was expected to win.

The Sweep and Best Picture win: There is often a film that gets more nominations than one can count on two hands. There can also a film that may have been lucky enough to be the year’s box office smash as well. What does this mean? It means absolutely nothing. People tend to have that odd feeling that the "biggest" movie will win. Their more knowledgeable friends can tell them that Star Wars never won Best Picture, and neither did Raiders of the Lost Ark or E.T., all top moneymakers and critical successes of their respective years. The only film of late that has achieved this dual status has been Forrest Gump.

So now that you know a bit about the process, let us move on to the main event, the nominations themselves.

Best Actor in a Leading Role: Matt Damon (Good Will Hunting), Robert Duvall (The Apostle), Dustin Hoffman (Wag The Dog), Jack Nicholson (As Good As It Gets), Peter Fonda (Ulee’s Gold). Out of these actors, the notable snubs were the entire male cast of LA Confidential (Russell Crowe and Guy Pearce), Kevin Kline from The Ice Storm, Leonardo DiCaprio from Titanic, as well as the cast of Donnie Brasco (Johnny Depp and Al Pacino). In my opinion the choice is between Peter Fonda and Jack Nicholson. Both actors have won the Golden Globe award, and both gave what will be among the top performances of their careers. Fonda has a nostalgia push going for him, while Nicholson was the performer who stole his movie in a role tailor-made for him. It’ll be a tough draw, but my money is on Fonda.

Best Actress in a Leading Role: Helena Bonham Carter (Wings of The Dove), Julie Christie (Afterglow), Judi Dench (Mrs. Brown), Helen Hunt (As Good As It Gets), Kate Winslet (Titanic). Kate Winslet’s performance was lacking, and otherwise dry. Helena Bonham Carter was the likely pick, given the numerous critics’ awards given to her, though her chances lost steam as she didn’t pick up the Golden Globe (Judi Dench did). Helen Hunt did pick up a Golden Globe, and since As Good As It Gets "needs" to win in a category, this is the likely giveaway, though Helena Bonham Carter may make a surprise acceptance speech.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Robert Forster (Jackie Brown), Anthony Hopkins (Amistad) Greg Kinnear (As Good As It Gets), Burt Reynolds (Boogie Nights), Robin Williams (Good Will Hunting). It’s a fairly solid category this year. Robert Forster’s nomination is a surprise, as his performance didn’t garner any rare praise. Worthy of note is the absence of the supporting cast of LA Confidential (Kevin Spacey, and James Cromwell). Burt Reynolds dominates this category, with a surefire win based on his brilliant performance and much heralded resurfacing in the acting world. For his efforts, he has been rewarded with a glut of supporting actor awards from major critics’ circles. If not for Reynolds, Robin Williams and Greg Kinnear may have had a chance to get an award, more for their movies rather than their performances.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Kim Basinger (LA Confidential), Joan Cusack (In and Out), Minnie Driver (Good Will Hunting), Julianne Moore (Boogie Nights), Gloria Stuart (Titanic). In this category, the only performances of note are those of Gloria Stuart, an extremely old contender who along with her age, may ride the Titanic wave to win the award. The other is Kim Basinger, who did not shine as brightly as the other stars of LA Confidential, yet delivered her best performance to date. To her luck, the Academy may choose to honor LA Confidential through her. The only significant omission here is for Sigourney Weaver, who did an outstanding job in The Ice Storm.

Best Original Dramatic Score: Titanic, Amistad, Good Will Hunting, Kundun, and LA Confidential. What is interesting here, is how LA Confidential managed to get its composer, Jerry Goldsmith, a nomination, though his work for this film was only average. Danny Elfman got his first nomination for Good Will Hunting, while not being one of his better works. It must frustrate him that he got nominated for this particular score, since the Academy has ignored all of his previous efforts including Batman, his best score, and arguably one of the most popular ones of the past ten years. John Williams received his token nomination for his decent score to Amistad, though his effort in Seven Years In Tibet was noticeably absent. Titanic, which was the best score of the year, and arguably James Horner's best as well, will surely win.

Best Original Song: Titanic, Hercules, Good Will Hunting, Anastasia, Con Air. The only memorable songs here are from Anastasia, Hercules, and Titanic. Titanic's song is breaking records (highest selling soundtrack ever) and topping the charts, giving it even more momentum, notwithstanding the fact that "My Heart Will Go On" is the best song of the year. James Horner will indeed be picking up two awards Oscar night.

Best Visual Effects: Titanic, The Lost World, Starship Troopers. Again, there is no contest here. Titanic was a film with so many well-done effects that masterfully created unparalleled realistic imagery. Had it not been around this year, Starship Troopers could have easily won. The omission of The Fifth Element is notable.

Best Art Direction: Titanic, Gattaca, LA Confidential, Men In Black, Kundun. Again, it is not going to be a surprise that Titanic will win. When a model of the Titanic was built to 9/10ths scale in comparison to the real one, with a keen eye for detail, it would be embarrassing for another winner to surface.

Best Cinematography: Titanic, Kundun, Amistad, LA Confidential, The Wings of The Dove. The winner in this particular category is not as clear. Kundun’s painting-like cinematography by Roger Deakins is just as impressive as Titanic’s, if not more so. Titanic may well have to either cheat, or get lucky in this category to win.

Best Film Editing: Titanic, LA Confidential, Air Force One, As Good As It Gets, Good Will Hunting. In this case, Titanic had a much harder job of editing, with so many shots and cuts to be sewn in. James Cameron delved into the editing for Titanic himself, and it might seem possible, though not likely, that he will win for this, and be cut off for other chances that evening. LA Confidential is also a possibility, given the effort that has been made to create a coherent film. This might be the chance for LA to capture another award for the evening.

Best Makeup: Titanic, Mrs. Brown, Men In Black. If you remember the scene in Titanic where the corpses’ hair is crystallized, you’ll agree that it deserves to win.

Best Original Musical or Comedy Score: Anastasia, As Good As It Gets, Men In Black, The Full Monty, My Best Friend’s Wedding. It is ironic how the Academy created this category so that Disney would not dominate the Best Original Score category. This category is a bit of a stumper. Anastasia may win because of a superb overall effort by Stephen Flattery. Men In Black may win so that the Academy can satisfy Danny Elfman for once. As Good As It Gets has a chance, as Hans Zimmer wrote a lovely light score, in addition, the movie just needs more awards.

Best Director: James Cameron, Curtis Hanson, Atom Egoyan, Gus Van Sant, Peter Cattaneo. Missing from the list is Mike Newell of Donnie Brasco, who did a superb job at showing the public that there can be more character-based stories generated from the Mafia than we thought possible. The other notable omission is Ang Lee, for providing a perfect blend of acting and atmosphere in The Ice Storm. This is one of the difficult awards to predict. It is safe to say that Cameron will have his night, however, LA Confidential has been one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year, as it brought back film noir to public attention. The usual matching award for Best Picture and Best Director may have to be split this time.

Best Picture: Titanic, LA Confidential, The Full Monty, Good Will Hunting, As Good As It Gets. In this category it is a true surprise to see The Full Monty here, along with its matching Best Director nomination. It was a funny film, but to say that it was on the level of greatness, greater than other films snubbed such as The Ice Storm or Donnie Brasco is going a bit too far. Titanic is the public favorite (of all time). LA Confidential is the critical favorite (of the entire year, surpassing Titanic). The better film? It is hard to say. The only way LA Confidential could win Best Picture is for it to win other supporting awards that evening, with the likely ones being Adapted Screenplay, Editing, and Supporting Actress. If it wins about three awards in those or other categories, it has a good chance to win. However Titanic was a great film and it may well end up beating Ben-Hur’s record of eleven awards without having to win Best Picture.