Hussein Leaves Legacy of War and Peace

Weinberger Reflects on Jordan's Past, Present, and Future

The passing of King Hussein of Jordan leaves a dual legacy. On the surface, his death came while searching for peace with Arab neighbors and even, ostensibly, with the Israelis. Still, peace with Israel was not always forthcoming. His record as a moderate ruler in the face of other Arab authoritarian regimes, however, is especially impressive.

With his death, the questions of stability that have plagued the small nation seem likely to return. Now that a strained peace with Israel has passed several tests, the question of whether Abdullah, the King's son and heir, will be able to retain the stability that his father established arises.

From the outset of his reign, which he began at the age of 16 in 1952, King Hussein faced adversity and was confronted with a constant struggle for control. He witnessed the shooting of his grandfather by Palestinian nationalists in 1951 shortly before he took power. In 1956 he had to fend off an Army coup instigated by Egypt's President Nasser, who would prove just as menacing in Israel's Six Day War. In 1967, Nasser conned Hussein into battle, claiming that Israel's Air Force had been shattered. Jordan lost the West Bank in the ensuing battles. This was possibly the low point of Hussein's 46-year reign.

In September of 1970, Jordanian troops were forced to confront armed Palestinian fighters, led by Yassir Arafat, who had established a nationalistic stronghold within Jordanian borders. By 1974, an Arab Summit meeting had declared that Hussein no longer represented the Palestinian people and Arafat's PLO assumed that function. In 1988, at the height of the Intifada, Hussein relinquished his claim to the West Bank to the Palestinians.

Dr. Naomi Weinberger, a political science professor at YU who is an expert on Middle Eastern affairs, described the political savvy of King Hussein. "His style of ruling was to always hedge and straddle the fence, always leaving himself room to maneuver and some deniability." She explained how the reversals of fortune that periodically shook up the empire taught him that shifting between extremes was both militarily and politically dangerous. It was this political ideology that allowed him to openly support Syria in the early 70's, then turn in favor of Iraq as it grew in power.

Interestingly, this characteristic is highlighted by the complex relationship between the King and the Palestinian people, who comprised a significant portion of his own empire. Many Palestinians regarded the King as an enemy of the Palestinian people for his non-aggressive stance with regards to recapturing the West Bank. However, despite the distrust, Queen Noor, the King's wife, is of Palestinian heritage and was often viewed as a key player, albeit behind the scenes, in Jordanian politics.

For Dr. Weinberger, it is the accomplishments of the King within Jordan that stand out as his greatest achievements as a ruler. "What he did was take a small, poor country surrounded by larger neighbors with much greater influence, and gain for it a far greater option in the inter-Arab arena than it would have otherwise seen." This ability to take advantage of situations and influence the politics of the region in a way beneficial to his beleaguered people may be one of the greatest political accomplishments of the decade. That Jordan had more regional influence than its small size might suggest is a testament to the Hussein's accomplishments.

Throughout the history of the Israeli state, the attitudes of Israeli leaders and society toward Hussein have varied. Of late though, there appears to have been a change in sentiment. The once maligned dictator is now viewed more as a friend of peace than as an Arab oppressor. Secretly, King Hussein had moved in recent years towards closer ties with the Israeli Government, conducting secret meetings with officials in the hope of accomplishing some sort of peace. Openly, however, he was disparaged by some ranking Israeli leaders until relatively recently.

The history of Israeli distrust toward Hussein largely dissipated following the Gulf War conflict. Following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, the King sought to keep Jordan in a position of neutrality, angering the US Government and creating the impression among Israelis that he actually supported Saddam's regime. Eventually, Saddam denounced the King, who did not ally himself with Iraq during the war. Jordan could have easily allowed Iraqi ground forces to cross through its territory toward Israel. By not allowing this, Hussein demonstrated to Israelis that he was not seeking the downfall of the Jewish state.

What emerged before the King's death was the warmest peace between Israel and an Arab ruler since the 1978 Camp David Accords with Egypt. Largely, notes Dr. Weinberger, the peace was a direct result of the King's personality. "Once he decided to make peace, he did it with open-hearted gestures, not with reluctance." His genuine desire for peace was reflected in his reaction to the shooting of seven Israeli school children by a Jordanian soldier in 1997. He visited the families of the children personally, extending condolences and, as the mother of one of the slain children added, he promised here succinctly that, "There will be peace."

While the signing of the peace agreements with Jordan represent a definite highlight of warm relations between Israel and the Arab nations, many are not so easily convinced of the authenticity of the King and his partners in peace. The King's detractors note the fact that had it not been for the signing of the Oslo Accords in 1993 between Israel and the Palestinians, the 1994 peace treaty with Jordan may never have happened. Dr. Weinberger explained that the strained nature of the King's relationship with his Palestinian subjects would not allow him to openly welcome peace with the Israelis, people whom they considered their mortal enemies. In fact, even today, the peace stands largely as "The King's Peace," its success hinging on the charisma of Hussein himself rather than a genuine yearning for peace on the part of his subjects.

Drawing from these results, Dr. Weinberger looked towards the future as Abdullah moves to take control of Jordanian affairs. "I learned from those events that if the King, with all his stature, security and respect, could still not move for peace until Arafat had already done so, it seems that his son, who remains largely unestablished, will not be able to take the peace forward unless the Palestinians take the lead."

She also noted how the Jordanian people as a whole expected the peace and its international acclaim to bring economic prosperity. Palestinians, in particular, had hoped that it would bring them a better deal in their negotiations with Israel for independent statehood. "The Jordanian people don't see what they expected, and now skepticism sets in. Clearly they can't be terribly enthusiastic about him [Abdullah] until they begin to see the things they expected."

What remains to be seen in terms of the maintenance of a lasting peace between Israel and Jordan is how King Abdullah will respond to his new position. Abdullah is far from a seasoned political force. He is a recognized military officer who suppressed a series of riots inside Jordan in recent years. His powerful stand, despite his inexperience at maintaining the political balance that characterized his father's reign may be enough to retain Jordanian stability. Largely, though, noted Weinberger, the Jordanian people will expect the country's political system to liberalize under their new ruler. "The King had tried it, but had to crack down to maintain order. Recently, though, he had made attempts at liberalization. Lacking the clout of his father, Abdullah will likely be forced to proceed on this course to please the people."

With respect to the Palestinians inside Jordan, Weinberger noted, "They have had a flavor of the Israeli democracy and will get frustrated, having followed the progress of the West Bank Palestinians." Once again, how the freedoms of Palestinians in the West Bank and within Jordan develop will determine how happy they are. Similarly, this will determine how their approach to Israeli relations will unfold.