As Major League Baseball opens its 125th year, little consensus exists in the baseball world, aside from the sentiment that the New York Yankees will win the World Series. Surprisingly, I disagree. The theme that shall pervade baseball this year is one of retribution; whereas once the Yankees were able to easily handle the Oakland A's, this year will be different. Teams that were once subjugated will rise up and smite the teams that dominated them in the past. Contrary to popular belief, the new strike zone will not hurt finesse pitchers like Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine. Look for home run totals to continue to rise, but no individual player will threaten Mark McGwire's single-season home run mark. Also, look for the continuation of a recent trend - ERA's and runs per games rising. As well, pay attention to the disparity between big market and small market teams - most of the small market teams will be out of contention by June 15th. This will be a point of contention in the off-season when the owners and players will have to negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement. There may not be a season next year, as the owners will probably lock out the players, so enjoy this one because it promises to be a wild one.
Led by an already strong starting pitching staff that was further bolstered by the free-agent signing of Mike Mussina, the Yankees appear to be the team to beat in the American League East. However, questions abound about their bullpen; can the Yankees find someone to replace Jeff Nelson as Mariano Rivera 's set up man? Will Joe Torre be forced to pitch Rivera for two innings on a consistent basis, and will the starting pitchers stay healthy for the duration of the long season? Also, with Paul O'Neil's expected retirement after this season and the approaching conclusion of the careers of Tino Martinez and Scott Brosius, this season might be the last hurrah for many of the current Yankees. The Yankees' defense might turn out to be their Achilles heal. While Chuck Knoblauch has been banished to left field because of his throwing problems, replacement Alfonso Soriano is also considered a defensive liability, and with the exception of Derek Jeter and Bernie Williams, the Yankees are a poor defensive team.
The Cleveland Indians will be the class of this division and the league. They compensated for the lost of Manny Ramirez by signing Ellis Burks and two-time A.L. MVP Juan Gonzalez. The Indians boast one of the strongest farm systems in the majors, and it is about to bear fruits. Russell Branyan has had one of the best spring trainings in baseball, and C.C. Sabathia has pitched exceptionally well. This team combines power-hitting, defense, and pitching to form the most potent team in the American League. This may be the deepest and most well-rounded team that the Indians have fielded, including the team that advanced to the 1997 World Series.
Last year, the Seattle Mariners almost won their division; they lost the top spot to the Oakland A's on the final day of the 2000 season. But, they still captured the wildcard and even managed to upset the White Sox in the first round of the playoffs. However, this year's team is much different than last year's for one simple reason: No A-Rod. With Alex Rodriguez's free agent defection to the Texas Rangers, the Mariners not only lost their most productive and dangerous bat, but they also lost a player who improved the level of play of his teammates. The team hopes that the addition of Japanese superstar outfielder Ichiro Suzuki and the addition of Jeff Nelson to an already strong bullpen will compensate for Rodriguez's absence. The team will go as far as its pitching takes it, and the Mariners may sport the best overall pitching in the American League, a strength that is further enhanced by baseball's best pitcher's park, Safeco Field.
The Oakland A's boast baseball's most potent offense, and the addition of Johnny Damon only enhances their team. Their pitching staff is led by Tim Hudson and Barry Zito, two of baseball's most promising young pitchers, but the loss of Kevin Appier to the Mets has left the staff without veteran leadership. Also, the team's defense is below average and its bullpen is simply weak. While the A's may be able to out-hit every team, they will be encumebered by their lack of depth on the mound, as "good pitching beats good hitting every time."
In the National League East, the Atlanta Braves will once again win the division, led by robust starting pitching. The offense is led by former MVP Chipper Jones and rising star Andruw Jones; look for him to have a breakout year that will compensate for the loss of power-hitting first baseman, Andres Galarraga. The Braves hope that Odalis Perez and Kevin McGlinchy can provide adequate middle-relief. The continuing success of the Braves can be attributed to their farm system. They have managed to produce one star after another, and Jason Marquis looks to be the next one.
The Mets are basically the same team that they were last year, except with one change - they lost NLCS MVP Mike Hampton to Colorado. Also, this is a veteran team that is one year older, and in the offseason, the Mets made no moves to address their age and weak hitting. On the positive side, the Mets feel that the acquisitions of Kevin Appier and Steve Traschel will erase the onus on one of the best bullpens in baseball. Also, the Mets have Mike Piazza - 'nough said.
The St. Louis Cardinals will manage to hold off the hard-hitting Houston Astros, and they will win their second consecutive division title. As always, the Cards are led by Mark McGwire and a potent offense, but what will ultimalty carry them is their pitching. The staff is led by ace Daryl Kile, who, after leaving baseball's pitching Siberia, Colorado, last year regained the impressive form he had exhibited in 1998. Kile will once again be a Cy Young Award contender. The Cards also hope that Matt Morris, who is returning from a serious elbow injury, can regain his rookie form. But the true determinant of this team's will be Rick Ankiel's ability to overcome his throwing problems. With Ankiel pitching well, the Cards are a devastating team that can throw out a quality arm every game; however, if Ankiel suffers from a lack of control, the Cards are an ordinary team with solid, but not spectacular form.
In what promises to be one of baseball's wackiest division races, the Colorado Rockies will shock the world by winning the division and beating favorites San Francisco and Los Angeles. The Rockies will be led by free agent signees Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle. But the reason they will win the division is simple: they will out hit everybody. Look for Larry Walker and Todd Helton to compete with each other for the National League batting title.
In the American League, the defending champs will play the same team that they played last year in the divisional round. The Yankees however, will not repeat as champions and they will not even beat the A's. The A's will overcome the Yankees vaunted pitching staff and will set a record for most runs scored in a divisional series. Look for Johnny Damon to prove his worth in this series.
In the other divisional round, the Indians will beat the Mariners. The Mariners simpy will not be able to score enough runs to win this round. Look for AL home run champ Juan Gonzalez to have a big series, and listen for Mariners fans' complaints that the outcome would have been different if A-Rod's bat were still in their lineup. The ALCS will be a slugfest. The A's and the Indians will try to outhit each other. Forget pitching, this series will center primarily on home runs. Jason Giambi and Eric Chavez will try to bat the A's into the Series, but they will not be able to overcome the depth of the Indians. Juan Gonzalez will add ALCS MVP to his trophy case, and the Tribe will be heading back to the Big Dance for the first time since 1997.
In the National League, the Braves and Cardinals will meet once again. The Braves, led by NL MVP Andruw Jones, will defeat the Cardinals, whose bats will be silenced by the Braves vaunted pitching staff.
Mike Hampton will lead the Colorado Rockies into the division series against his old team, the Mets. However, Hampton will regret his decision to leave the team as a free agent when the Mets beat up on him and the rest of the Rockies staff. Look for Robin Ventura and Edgardo Alfonso to have a big series.
The Mets and Braves will meet, yet again, for what will be a classic series. The Braves have dominated the Mets for much of the past decade, but, led by Mike Piazza, the Mets will advance to their second consecutive World Series. This is a team that epitomizes this year's theme of payback. For years the Braves have "owned" the Mets, but this year shall be different. Look for this series to be a classic and one that will go to seven games.
In the World Series the Indians will capture their first title in fifty-four years, as they will defeat the Mets in six games. The Indians will pound the Mets pitching, and Robbie Alomar will show that he is the best second baseman in the game, as he will capture MVP honors.